Prices rose sharply due to the expected decline in sunflower harvest in Russia and Ukraine
Sunflower oil has become the most expensive vegetable oil in the world, its prices in Europe exceeded the prices of rapeseed oil for the first time in four years, according to Refinitiv Agriculture. In the ports of the Black Sea, the cost rose sharply due to the pessimistic harvest forecasts and the lack of proposals for the supply of sunflower both in Ukraine and in Russia. According to OilWorld, oil prices are now at $ 990 / ton with delivery in September-October. For spot deliveries, the offer of sunflower oil reached $ 1,000 / t (CIF Mumbai), Refinitiv notes.
By early September, demand prices for Russian sunflower oil had reached a five-year high, reaching $ 815-835 / t (FOB), which is $ 100 / t higher than a year earlier. According to the analytical company ProZerno, prices have now increased to about $ 940 / ton – there have not been such values since the 2012/13 season, when oil cost an average of $ 1.1 thousand / ton.
Now oil prices are really high, but ten years ago they were even higher and reached $ 1.5 thousand per ton, recalls Mikhail Maltsev, executive director of the Fat and Oil Union. “The fact that sunflower oil has become the most expensive type of oil is quite justified. From the point of view of nutritional properties, it is definitely better than rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and even more so palm oil, respectively, and should cost more, – he commented to Agroinvestor. – However, in recent years, due to a fairly large supply of sunflower oil, the premium for its quality indicators was not taken into account. Now, in this regard, the situation is getting better, but, unfortunately, only because in Ukraine and in Russia – the main sunflower producers – there is a serious crop failure in agriculture.”
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of September 15, sunflower has been harvested from 1.3 million hectares, or 15.3% of the sown area. 2.1 million tons were harvested, which is 427 thousand tons less than a year earlier. The average yield is lower than last year's by 6.6 c/ha and is 16.6 c/ha.
The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) in its September report lowered the forecast for the gross harvest of sunflower in Ukraine and Russia by 0.5 million tons to 17 million tons 13.5 million tons, respectively. The Russian agricultural department believes that the harvest in our country will be at the level of 13 million tons against about 15.4 million tons last year. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, the analytical center “SovEkon” earlier downgraded the estimate of the gross yield of sunflower to 11.8 million tons, warning about the upcoming increase in prices for both sunflower seeds and oil.
“The cost of sunflower over the past two weeks in the South has grown to 29-30 thousand rubles per ton, and this is a historical maximum,” said Maltsev. – For comparison, a year earlier prices for sunflower in September amounted to 20 thousand rubles / ton. ” According to the index of the ProZerno company, by September 11, sunflower cost an average of 27.3 thousand rubles / ton (EXW with VAT), having risen in price by almost 2.8 thousand rubles / ton over the week. A year earlier, the price was at the level of 19.5 thousand rubles / ton.
World prices for butter and the dollar exchange rate form high prices within the country, continues Maltsev. According to OilWorld, the average purchase prices for the last week were in the range of 52.9-54.8 thousand rubles / ton, depending on the region, sales prices ranged from 56.5 thousand rubles / ton to 58.6 thousand RUB / t “In the future, we do not expect a serious rise in prices for sunflower oil – today they are almost at their peak,” says Maltsev.