Sunflower prices have been growing for a month and now, according to market participants, have reached a record level. Compared to the previous season, the rise in price was almost 60%. This is due to forecasts for a decrease in harvest due to drought, as well as the weakening of the ruble.
According to the expert, closer to October the market will cool down, prices will be adjusted downward. According to market participants, the price of sunflower has been growing since the beginning of the season (mid-August) and now reaches 32–33 rubles. per kg with VAT. A year ago, the price was 20–21 rubles. per kg and decreased with the course of harvesting. Now the trend of price growth due to the drought continues. So, last week, the Sovekon analytical center announced the risk of a serious sunflower harvest failure in Russia in 2020. According to analysts’ forecasts, this year Russia can collect 11.8 million tons of oilseeds, 23% less than last year, due to unfavorable weather conditions, primarily in the south of the country.
— This is more likely about unrealized hopes, since a higher harvest was expected,” said a grain market analyst, who asked to remain anonymous. - Prices are now record high in rubles due to the dollar exchange rate, and also because the season is now starting, the supply in Russia and Ukraine is still low. The lack of seeds is causing a stir in the market. Everyone is waiting for the results of the harvest in Russia and Ukraine. It is already clear that the harvest will be lower, the question is how much. As all works are completed, closer to October, the market will cool down, prices may be adjusted downward.
The interlocutor N added that now farmers are already announcing the price of 34 rubles. per kg.
— The dynamics of prices for sunflower seeds is growing, - adds Sergey Kamenetsky, Deputy General Director of Yug Rusi Oil Extraction Plant LLC. “At the same time, in the course of harvesting in the regions of the Central Federal District and the Volga region, there are good reasons for reducing prices.
According to Nikolay Goncharov, co-owner of Svetly Group, the enterprise does not sell sunflower until it completes harvesting.
— The current prices will not affect our proceeds in any way, because the yield this year dropped to 15 c / ha (-37.5%), and a year ago it was 24 c / ha, - Nikolay Goncharov told N. - If the price is at the level of 35 rubles, the economy will remain at the level of last year.
Sunflower oil producers fear a shortage of sunflower seeds and advocate the introduction of restrictions on the export of sunflower seeds. According to the information on the Aston website, the Fat and Oil Union reported that the issue of their introduction is particularly acute.
One of such solutions could be an increase in the export duty rate: in August, the Ministry of Economic Development proposed to establish a duty for the export of sunflower seeds from Russia for February – August 2021 at the level of 20% of the customs value, but not less than 80 euros per ton. Now the export duty is 6.5%, but not less than 9.75 euros per ton. According to Kommersant, from April 12 to June 30, there was a ban on the export of sunflower outside the EAEU, then until August 31, a permitting regime was introduced, when for deliveries it was necessary to obtain a special document from the authorized body of a country – a member of the EAEU.
— Sunflower oil producers have no other choice but to adjust the price in accordance with the dynamics of raw material prices, says Sergey Kamenetsky. - This is due to the fact that in the structure of the cost of packaged sunflower oil, about 85% is the cost of sunflower seeds. In order for the price of sunflower oil on the domestic market to be as affordable as possible, it is necessary, first of all, to limit the export of raw materials from Russia. This is necessary for the formation of predicted prices for meal for animal husbandry and for meat and dairy products produced by animal husbandry. Restricting the export of raw materials is necessary for the country to export value-added products.
According to him, the Russian oil and fat industry provides a consistently high demand for farmers’ products and the highest profitability in crop production.